Almost every consultancy in Nepal advertises a visa success rate, and almost none of those numbers is verifiable. Here are the sourced government and sector figures instead, so you can read any success-rate claim against reality.
Australia moved Nepal to Assessment Level 3, its high-risk banding under the Simplified Student Visa Framework, in January 2026. Reported refusal rates for Nepali higher-education applicants ran at roughly 65 to 69 per cent, making Nepal the top country for Australian higher-education visa rejections. Certificate volumes fell from 33,991 to 14,372 in a single year.
Canada’s federal study-permit cap cut approvals for Nepali applicants by more than 50 per cent through the first ten months of 2024. Certificate volumes fell from 21,544 to 15,982.
Both moved the other way. UK entrants reached 17,385 in 2024/25, a 92 per cent year-on-year rise, and Nepal entered the top five non-EU origin countries. The USA moved Nepal from the tenth to the sixth largest sending country in Open Doors 2025, its highest total on record.
Treat any advertised rate as self-reported and unverified, because that is what it is. Under the 2026 regulations, visa guarantees are barred outright. If a consultancy quotes you 98 per cent for Australia, the honest question is which year, which visa subclass, and how many applications that percentage is drawn from.
Reported refusal rates ran at roughly 65 to 69 per cent for Nepali higher-education applicants after Nepal was moved to Assessment Level 3 in January 2026.
No. Visa guarantees are barred under the Educational Consultancy Regulations 2026, and no agent has any control over a visa decision.